Naira Watch: Pricing Discipline for Q4 Restocking
A short note for our Nigeria clients planning Q4 restock, because the naira does not care about your cost basis.
The cost-basis trap
You imported at $1 = ₦1,500. You priced at ₦120,000 and it felt right. Since then the rate moved; replacing that same washer now costs more USD-equivalent than you sold it for. If you price the NEXT container's stock off your OLD cost, you are selling tomorrow's stock at yesterday's loss. The fix is mechanical, not heroic: re-price remaining inventory monthly at replacement cost — current freight band + current FX + same margin target.
Three Q4-specific notes
- Demand tailwind: December is historically the strongest month for household appliances (bonus income, homecoming, gifting). Stock depth in Nov pays; stock depth in Jan sits.
- FX windows: if you fund Form M through the bank, start the FX conversation two weeks before the balance is due, the window, not the will, moves money.
- Supplier quotes: ours hold 7 days in USD. If your bank delay eats the window, ask for a revalidation BEFORE transferring to the expired price, surprises on both sides are how relationships crack.
The one-line policy
Price forward, not backward. The market pays what replacement costs, plus your margin, and importers who internalize that line stop being surprised by their own P&L.